Iran continues to be US nightmare
Comment
Marwan Kabalan

ON January 21, a new round of talks will take place between Iran and the five permanent members of the UN Secu-rity Council (the United States, Britain, France, China and Russia), plus Germany. The meeting will be held in Istanbul under the aegis of the Turkish government. Given the complicated nature of the issue at hand, it would be difficult to foresee a breakthrough during the Istanbul meeting. From a US perspective, Iran’s nuclear programme is just one aspect of a multifaceted problem. Washington fears that the withdrawal of its troops from Iraq would make Iran the most powerful conventional power in the Gulf, regardless of whether it has nuclear weapons. This makes the US and its regional allies, barring Israel, more con-cerned about Iran’s conventional power than its pursuit of nuclear weapons. By the token, Iran’s seems to be con-cerned about a US strike against its conventional forces, especially its naval capability, more than its nuclear sites. Iran thinks that the main deterrence to a US attack lies in its ability to block the Strait of Hormuz. Cutting off the flow of oil that comes out of the Gulf is considered by many as Iran’s true “nuclear” option.

At this stage, President Barack Obama does not seem to be quite sure about what to do with the Iranian challenge. Since 1979, all his predecessors had their Iran-related problems and he is not an exception. Following the 1979 Islamic revolution, the US embassy in Tehran was stormed by Iranian students and its diplo-mats were taken hostages. Mindful of the hostage crisis affecting his chances for re-election, president Jimmy Carter ordered a rescue operation. Bad weather and a collision between a helicopter and a fuel-laden transport plane ended the mission in a disaster. Secretary of state, Cyrus Vance, resigned immediately afterward and Carter lost his bid for a second term in office. Reagan’s nightmare: As for president Ronald Reagan, the Iran-Contra scandal haunted his administration for sev-eral years. He approved the sale of arms to Iran in exchange for the release of seven American hostages held in Lebanon in 1984. Indeed, three hostages were released, but only to be replaced by three others.

When the affair became public in 1986, the administration was found guilty by a Congressional committee of vio-lating the US-imposed embargo on arms sales to Iran. Public indignation over the scandal was compounded when it was disclosed that proceeds from the arms sales were diverted to Nicaragua’s main opposition group - the Contra - in violation of a law barring such support. Following the end of the Cold War, the Clinton administration tried to isolate Iran through its Dual Containment policy. It exerted huge international pressure to prevent foreign investment in Iran’s hydrocarbon sector and blocked attempts to export advanced technologies to Iran. Opportunity lost: Clinton, failed, however, to seize on the opportunity that aroused when the reformer Mohammad Khatami was elected as Iran’s president. Barely one year after taking office, Khatami addressed the American peo-ple through CNN. He expressed respect to US culture and hoped for opening a new chapter in the relations be-tween the two countries.

Yet, apart from a public apology by former secretary of state, Madeleine Albright, for the role played by the CIA in the overthrow of Iran’s national leader, Mohammad Mossadeq, Washington’s response was mild and as a result the Clinton’s presidency ended with no much improvement in the relationship between the two countries. The Bush administration recruited some of the most anti-Iran figures in US policy circles, but its approach toward Iran was quite ambivalent. During the war on Afghanistan, the US sought Iran’s support to overthrow the Taliban. Anxious to open a new chapter in its relations with Washington and remove a much detested foe, Iran provided significant contribution to the US campaign. The Iranian government was stunned, however, when President Bush named it alongside Iraq and North Korea as part of an “axis of evil”.

When the US started contemplating the invasion of Iraq, it turned to Iran once again for backing its efforts. US-Iranian talks were held in different European capitals on how Iran could contribute to the overthrow of Saddam Hussain. After the Iraqi regime was toppled, Iran came again under US fire. It was accused of trying to destabilise Iraq, undermine the Middle East peace process, develop nuclear weapons in secret and sheltering Al Qaida fugitives. Regardless, President Bush ended his presidency with no real success in handling an ever-rising Iranian power. Given this history of failures and disappointments, president Obama is extremely cautious in dealing with Iran. He seems mindful that Iran does not become the grave that buries his dreams in a second term in office. Indeed, he does not want to be seen as another Jimmy Carter.—Gulf News

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